UNDP Bhutan is seeking proposals from the qualified and experienced International Consulting firm for the Development of a Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting (MHIBF) System for Bhutan. Please find below the objectives and scope of the assignment. However, you are encouraged to review the Terms of Reference while preparing your submissions.ObjectivesThe primary objective of this assignment is to design, develop, pilot and verify the forecasts towards operationalizing a MHIBF system for Bhutan. The specific objectives are as follows: o   To develop a national MHIBF framework aligned with international standards and best practices, incorporating the hazard–exposure–vulnerability–impact (HEVI) approach. o   To integrate multi-hazard forecasting capabilities by combining meteorological and hydrological hazards—including rainfall, flooding, windstorms, and temperature extremes—into a unified impact-based analytical system. o   To establish standardized impact thresholds and risk matrices that translate hazard intensities into sector-specific impact levels, enabling consistent and actionable risk interpretation across key sectors. o   To develop sector-specific impact models and advisory mechanisms for priority sectors such as disaster risk management, transport and infrastructure, agriculture, health, and education, ensuring relevance for decision-making. o   To design, develop, and operationalize a web-based decision support platform, including data integration, impact computation, visualization dashboards, and advisory generation tools, forecast verification, while strengthening institutional workflows, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and technical capacity of national stakeholders for sustained system operation. Scope of Work The Firm/Expert Team shall undertake the end-to-end design, development, testing, and operationalization of a MHIBF system for Bhutan. The scope includes analytical framework development, multi-hazard modeling, digital platform development, institutional integration, and capacity building. 3.1  Inception and Diagnostic Assessment The Firm/Expert Team shall conduct a comprehensive inception and diagnostic assessment to establish the technical and institutional baseline for the MHIBF system. This shall include: -          Review of existing forecasting systems, tools, methodologies, and operational workflows within National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology -          Assessment of data availability, quality, accessibility, and interoperability, including hydro-meteorological, geospatial, and sectoral datasets -          Stakeholder consultations or workshop with key agencies, including DLDGM and sectoral stakeholders on operationalizing MHIBF for Bhutan -          Identification of institutional, technical, and data gaps, including constraints in translating hazard forecasts into impact-based outputs 3.2  Development of MHIBF Analytical Framework The Firm/Expert Team shall develop a robust analytical framework based on the Hazard–Exposure–Vulnerability–Impact (HEVI) approach. This shall include: o   Definition of hazard thresholds for: Rainfall intensity (e.g., return periods, thresholds) -          Flood levels (river discharge, inundation levels) -          Wind speeds -          Temperature extremes for both hot and cold o   Development of: -          Standardized exposure datasets (population, infrastructure, agriculture, critical facilities) -          Proxy-based vulnerability indices tailored to Bhutan’s socio-economic and geographic context -          Multi-level impact classification system (e.g., minor, moderate, severe, extreme) o   Development of impact matrices linking hazard intensity with expected sectoral consequences 3.3  3.3 Multi-Hazard and Sectoral Impact Modeling The Firm/Expert Team shall design and operationalize multi-hazard impact models integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability layers. This shall include: o   Integration of multiple hazard layers into unified forecasting workflows o   Development of sector-specific impact models for: -          Disaster Risk Management -          Transport and Infrastructure -          Agriculture -          Health -          Education o   Incorporation of: -          Compound and cascading risk interactions (e.g., rainfall-triggered landslides, flood-induced infrastructure disruption) -          Scenario-based modeling for different hazard intensities -          Uncertainty analysis and confidence levels in forecasts 3.4 Development of Web-Based MHIBF Platform The Firm/Expert Team shall design, develop, and deploy an integrated, user-friendly web-based MHIBF platform. The platform shall include:                                                                3.5 Anticipatory Actions and Advisory Framework The Firm/Expert Team shall develop a standardized impact-based anticipatory actions and advisory framework. This shall include:             3.6 Institutional Integration and SOP Development The Firm/Expert Team shall ensure integration of the MHIBF system into institutional workflows and operational structures. This shall include:                                                            3.7 Testing, Validation, and Operationalization The Firm/Expert Team shall conduct and develop a systematic testing and validation of the MHIBF system prior to full deployment. This shall include:          The Firm/Expert Team shall implement a structured capacity-building programme to ensure sustainability and operational ownership. This shall include:                                                                   Carry out structured international exposure training programme to be implemented separately in parallel to this assignment (you may quote only institutional/training fee for five to ten days) Please indicate whether you intend to submit a bid by creating a draft response without submitting directly in the system. This will enable the system to send notifications in case of amendments of the tender requirements. Should you require further clarifications, kindly communicate using the messaging functionality in the system. Offers must be submitted directly in the system following this link: http://supplier.quantum.partneragencies.org  using the profile you may have in the portal. In case you have never registered before, you can register a profile using the registration link shared via the procurement notice and following the instructions in guides available in UNDP website: https://www.undp.org/procurement/business/resources-for-bidders.  Do not create a new profile if you already have one. Use the forgotten password feature in case you do not remember the password or the username from previous registration.Search for the specific tender using search filters and subscribe to the tender in order to get notifications in case of amendments of the tender document. If you need support with the online system, you can contact the contact details of this tender as indicated in the solicitation document.[UNDP OFFICE BHUTANPROCUREMENT UNIT]