TOR   Purpose To conduct comprehensive analysis of data collected from Home-Based Assessments and Market Surveys to identify sources of heavy metal poisoning linked to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2025, including reporting writing. Location Nationwide Estimated Duration January to December 2026 Technical Supervisor of the assignment Chief of Health   Background and Context Heavy metal contamination poses a critical threat to public health in Bangladesh, especially for children and pregnant women. These toxic elements, particularly lead, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury, are non-biodegradable and can accumulate in the body over time, affecting brain development, vital organ function, and overall well-being. Children are particularly vulnerable to lead toxicity. Even low levels of exposure can cause irreversible neurological and behavioural damage, reduced IQ, attention deficits, and learning disabilities. Lead exposure in Bangladesh results in an estimated annual loss of approximately 20 million IQ points, which translates into an economic burden of about USD 10.9 billion (approximately 3.6% of GDP in 2019), with total combined health impacts (including adult cardiovascular disease) amounting to 6–9% of GDP (World Bank / Lancet Planetary Health 2023). According to the 2020 Toxic Truth Report by UNICEF and Pure Earth, which draws on data modelled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), approximately 35.5 million children in Bangladesh have blood lead levels (BLL) above 5 µg/dL, the threshold of concern set by the World Health Organization. Bangladesh is the fourth most affected country globally (UNICEF & Pure Earth, 2020; IHME, 2019). A 2022 surveillance study conducted by the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) and UNICEF across four districts found detectable lead levels in the blood of 100% of 980 children tested, with 40% exceeding 5 µg/dL. In Dhaka city, a study by icddr,b found that 98% of 500 children tested had detectable blood lead levels, indicating widespread exposure even in urban settings (icddr,b, 2022). The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) disseminated the preliminary findings of the 2025 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey which included blood heavy metal analysis results in children aged 12 to 59 months and pregnant women. This large-scale national survey is the first-of-its-kind globally and included: 13,707 blood samples from children and pregnant women tested for lead, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and anaemia. 11,529 household soil samples assessed for residential environmental contamination. Geospatial mapping using GPS coordinates for spatial analysis. Standardized questionnaires to assess potential environmental exposure risks and practices. The MICS 2025 revealed that 38.3% percent of the children and nearly 8% of the pregnant women had blood lead levels above the threshold (≥5 µg/dL). Smaller proportions showed elevated cadmium (4%) and arsenic (1%) among children and elevated cadmium (3%) and arsenic (2%) among pregnant women, indicating that lead poisoning was more prevalent than cadmium, arsenic and mercury poisoning. Three divisions (Dhaka 65.2%, Sylhet 46.7%, and Chattogram 42.1%) recorded the highest proportions of children with high blood lead levels above the national average of 38.3%. More alarming is that among children with high blood lead levels, the majority (52%) were in the richest quintile compared to the poorest quintile (30%). For every child poisoned, we are at risk of a future of lower IQs, attention deficits, and lost academic performance including losses in their estimated lifetime income. Major sources of lead and heavy metal exposure include over 1,100 informal used lead-acid battery (ULAB) recycling sites, lead-adulterated turmeric, unsafe gold ash recycling, e-waste, lead-based paints, contaminated spices, industrial emissions, and household products (UNICEF & Pure Earth, 2020). Home-Based Assessment (HBA) and Market Survey for Environmental Source Analysis Market and Packaged Food Surveillance: Wholesale markets and farms in districts where children were found with high heavy metal levels in blood in the MICS 2025, will be targeted for food and consumer product sampling and analysis. The Bangladesh Food Safety Authority (BFSA) will conduct market surveys and collect food items from about 100 to 150 local farms to test for possible heavy metal contamination and take regulatory action as needed. The Institute of Public Health and Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research will also collect about 5000 fresh food samples and packaged food items from large wholesale markets in Dhaka and selected divisions based on the MICS 2025 high risk districts. The Bangladesh Standards and Testing Institution (BSTI) and one accredited private laboratory will systemically test the food items (both branded and unbranded) for heavy metals and BSTI will use the findings to initiate policy and regulatory updates for enforcement.  Home-Based Assessment (HBA) - The HBA will focus on household sources. A dedicated field team will visit affected households with portable X-Ray Fluorescence (pXRF) analyzers to examine: Household items such as cookware, toys, cosmetics, and traditional medicines. Structural materials like walls, floors, and roofing. Food, water and food storage and water containers. On-site assessments will provide real-time data on potential household sources of contamination to guide prevention and mitigation interventions.  A total of approximately 2,000 – 3,000 households will be covered.   UNICEF would like to engage and collaborate with an institution to support the relevant government agencies for a comprehensive analysis of the data from the market surveys and home-based assessments collected, including report writing and drafting of policy briefs.   Rationale / Purpose of the evidence activity The purpose of this assignment is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of data collected from Home-Based Assessments (HBAs) and Market Surveys to identify the main sources of heavy metal exposure in children linked to the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2025 findings. The analysis will generate actionable evidence on contamination patterns, assess whether levels exceed national and international safety standards, and compare contamination levels across different food and household product categories. The findings will inform government agencies including BSTI, BFSA, Department of Environment (DoE) and the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), to revise and update food safety standards, strengthen certification processes, enforcement mechanisms, and regulatory frameworks. This work will also contribute directly to the implementation and updating of the national multi-sectoral strategy for a Lead-Free Bangladesh, ensuring that policy decisions are grounded in robust data.   Objectives Overall Objective: To provide technical support for the comprehensive analysis of data from Home-Based Assessments (HBAs) and Market Surveys, and to generate high-quality analytical reports and policy briefs that inform government and partner decision-making related in communication, advocacy, awareness raising and regulatory enforcement. Specific Objectives Clean, manage, and analyze datasets from HBAs and Market Surveys on sources of heavy metal exposure particularly among children. Identify key exposure pathways and geographical hotspots, linking them to blood analysis results from MICS 2025. Assess whether contamination levels in foods and household items exceed national (BSTI, BFSA) and international (Codex, WHO, EFSA, US FDA) safety standards. Compare contamination levels across packaged vs. unpackaged foods to identify the most vulnerable categories, especially foods and consumer products commonly consumed and used by children. Provide evidence-based recommendations to BSTI and BFSA to strengthen food safety standards, certification processes, and enforcement mechanisms. Draft concise policy briefs for dissemination among government agencies, partners, and stakeholders.   Scope Geographic scope: The scope would be national, covering a sample of survey clusters under MICS 2025 where the HBA and Market Surveys will be conducted. The final selection of districts, upazilas, clusters and households will be finalised by the end of November 2025. However, Dhaka, Chattogram and Sylhet divisions which were the top 3 divisions with children with high blood lead levels will be included in the sampling process. Time frame: The analysis will cover data collected from the HBA and Market Surveys and these will be conducted from January 2026. No primary data collection is expected under this contract. Target groups: The target groups will include children aged 12 to 59 months, pregnant women, and households included in the MICS 2025 blood lead level module including the HBA and Market Surveys. Exclusions: The assignment does not include field data collection, evaluation of interventions, or laboratory testing of new samples.   The selected institution will also do the following in close collaboration with UNICEF: Draft inception report including data analysis plan and workplan with timeframe: The institution will prepare and present an inception report on how they plan to undertake this assignment including a detailed workplan, timelines and analysis framework. Cleaning and validation of the dataset: The institution will process the dataset in collaboration with UNICEF and the relevant government institutions. Draft technical analysis report for review: The institution will draft the technical analytical report in collaboration with the technical committee/working group established by government institution and relevant stakeholders. The institution will gather technical input through a stakeholder consultation led by the government institution and incorporate all feedback received. Finalise the technical analytical report and policy brief: The institution will finalise the report and policy brief for final review and endorsement by the technical working group/committee for dissemination. Prepare presentation for stakeholder dissemination: The institution will prepare a presentation for dissemination of findings at a stakeholder workshop.   Analysis Questions The analysis will generate actionable evidence guided by the following questions: What are the primary household and market-based sources of heavy metal poisoning affecting children identified through HBAs and Market Surveys? To what extent do heavy metal contamination levels in foods and household items exceed national or international safety standards? How do heavy metal contamination levels differ between packaged and unpackaged foods, and which categories show the highest risk particularly for children? How do identified exposure sources correlate with elevated blood heavy metal analysis results from the MICS 2025 BLL+ module? Are there identifiable patterns of exposure by geography, socio-economic group, or product type? What are the priority sources of exposure in children requiring urgent regulatory or programmatic response? How can findings inform updates to the national Lead-Free Bangladesh Strategy and guide actions by BSTI, BFSA, MoEFCC, UNICEF, and partners?   Methodology The assignment will employ a secondary data analysis approach using quantitative data from HBAs, Market Surveys, and the Bangladesh MICS 2025 dataset. The methodology will include: Data cleaning and management Validation, coding, and integration of HBA and Market Survey datasets with MICS 2025 blood and soil test results. Handling missing values and ensuring consistency across datasets. Descriptive and inferential analysis Frequency distributions, cross-tabulations, and trend analysis of contamination levels across products, regions, and household items. Statistical tests to assess differences between packaged vs. unpackaged foods. Correlation and regression models to identify predictors of elevated exposure. Geospatial analysis Mapping contamination hotspots using GPS coordinates. Overlaying exposure data with socio-demographic variables to identify high-risk populations. Evidence synthesis Develop technical reports, data dashboards, and policy briefs. Quality assurance through internal peer review, stakeholder consultations, and UNICEF’s evidence quality standards. Risks and limitations Data quality issues such as missing values or inconsistencies. Limited representation of some household or market samples. Potential over-attribution in cases where multiple exposure sources coexist. Mitigation will include rigorous validation procedures, triangulation across multiple data sources, and transparent reporting of limitations.   Ethical Considerations As this assignment involves secondary data analysis only, there will be no direct engagement with study participants. The contracted institution will be required to ensure strict adherence to UNICEF’s Procedure for Ethical Standards in Research, Evaluation, Data Collection and Analysis. This includes secure data storage, restricted access, confidentiality, and full de-identification of all datasets. All analyses and outputs must safeguard the privacy of individuals and households, with only aggregated, non-identifiable findings reported or shared.  The personnel of the selected institution should have appropriate ethical training, which at a minimum should include completing UNICEF’s AGORA course on Ethics in Evidence Generation. The selected institution should outline how they will ensure secure storage and transfer of data (see UNICEF’s Procedure for Ethical Standards in Research, Evaluation, Data Collection and Analysis).   Use of Findings The findings from this analysis will guide communication, advocacy and awareness raising on the effects and sources of heavy metal poisoning, including the development of clinical guidelines and training modules for health care professionals. It will also directly inform regulatory actions by BFSA, BSTI, DoE and MoEFCC, while guiding the implementation of the national Lead-Free Bangladesh Strategy. The findings will provide the evidence base for policy briefs and advocacy with government, development partners, and donors, and will feed into UNICEF’s program planning and reporting to strengthen the healthy environments for healthy children programme. Publication Plan The final analytical report, policy briefs, and related outputs from this assignment will be published and disseminated among relevant government and non-government stakeholders, including with development partners, civil society and academia. All publications will undergo UNICEF’s internal review and clearance process prior to dissemination to guarantee quality, accuracy, and alignment with organizational standards.   Schedule of Tasks & Timeline   No Major task Deliverables Timeline 1 Draft inception report including workplan Inception report Within 2 weeks of start of contract 2 Cleaning and validation of the dataset, descriptive and inferential analysis, Geospatial analysis Cleaned and validated dataset and analytical framework 3 weeks 3 Evidence synthesis and draft technical analysis report for review by the technical committee Draft analytical report 2 weeks 4 Finalise the technical analytical report incorporating feedback from UNICEF and government stakeholders Final analytical and technical report 1 week    5 Finalise the policy briefs highlighting key findings & recommendations Concise policy briefs (2–3) 1 week 6 Prepare presentation for stakeholder dissemination Presentation on analytical report including approach, key findings, limitations and recommendations (25–30-minute presentation) 3 days     Estimated duration of contract The duration of the contract will be ten (10) months considering government availability for technical committee meetings and stakeholder consultations and the duration of data collection for the HBA and market surveys. Team composition, Qualifications & Experience required This assignment will be undertaken by an agency that is primarily engaged in the conduct of simple and complex analytical studies. The selected agency should have a successful track record of conducting high quality literature reviews, as well as designing, implementing, and performing complex data analysis and correlations of quantitative and qualitative surveys. The agency must have a substantial research infrastructure to support data analysis, electronic archiving of the data and capable of ensuring the highest level of confidentiality. Lead Statistician/Data Analyst: Advanced degree in statistics, data science, or epidemiology; 10+ years’ experience in large survey analysis; have solid modelling and data analysis experience with publications track record and be proficient in the use of computer software i.e. Windows 8, MS Office, Internet searches, including statistical data analysis software. Public Health/Environmental Health Expert: Expertise in toxicology/heavy metals/environmental science; must have 5+ years’ experience. Have experience in public health and environmental health/science research analysis – at least one senior expert. Policy/Report Writer: Strong record of drafting technical analytical reports and policy briefs. Possess excellent verbal and written communication skills. Possess excellent analytical, report writing and presentation skills. GIS Specialist: Proven experience in geospatial mapping and hotspot analysis. Team Coordinator: Experience managing multi-disciplinary analysis teams.   Duty Station The institution should be based in Bangladesh.   Management and Supervision The overall assignment will be coordinated and monitored by UNICEF in collaboration with the relevant government institutions.   BFSA/BSTI/DOE: UNICEF will be supporting relevant government institutions - BFSA, BSTI, DoE and IEDCR to conduct the HBA and Market Surveys. Hence, these government institutions will conduct the data collection from the field, households and markets. A technical committee comprising of BFSA, BSTI, DOE, IEDCR and other relevant DGHS officials including UNICEF and other UN agencies will be established to coordinate and provide technical guidance for the data analysis, documentation, reporting and endorsements.   UNICEF: UNICEF will serve as the technical lead for the data analysis and reporting. All deliverables will be reviewed by SPEAR and Health Sections before sharing with any of the government institutions. UNICEF will also facilitate the discussions, correspondences and consultations between BFSA, BSTI, IEDCR and the selected institution. UNICEF will also ensure that relevant development partners (DPs) are engaged and informed about assessment. UNICEF Supply Section will be the focal point for all administrative, financial and contract related correspondence, including amendment.   The selected institution will be responsible for reporting on the specific activities and funds received. The following reports will be submitted by the selected institution: Bi-weekly progress update reports from date of contract signing. Submission of inception report and workplan Submission of draft technical analytical report for UNICEF review Submission of final and endorsed technical analytical report Submission of policy briefs (2-3) Submission of overall assignment report   Official travel involved No travel outside Dhaka will be required.   Payment Schedule The payment method will be deliverable based:  10% payment on submission and approval of inception report and workplan 20% payment on submission of cleaned, validated dataset and analytical framework and draft technical analytical report for UNICEF review 20% payment on submission of final and endorsed technical analytical report 20% payment on submission of final and endorsed policy briefs (2-3) Final payment on submission of overall technical assignment report   Technical Evaluation Criteria   CATEGORY POINTS OVERALL RESPONSE    * Understanding of, and responsiveness to, published “Request for Proposal” * Understanding of scope, objectives, and completeness of response. * Documentation of experience in conducting large-scale data analysis and reporting (5) 1 2 2 METHODOLOGY AND DETAILED TIMELINE * Quality of the proposed approach and methodology. * Suitability of the approach: To what extent the methodology is designed in response to the needs of the TOR. * Quality of proposed implementation plan, i.e how the bidder will undertake each task, and time-schedules. *Risk assessment - recognition of the risks/peripheral problems and methods to prevent and manage risks/peripheral problems. * Timelines proposed must be detailed and realistic (35) 10 10   5   5   5 ORGANISATIONAL CAPACITY and PROPOSED TEAM * Professional expertise of the firm/company/organization, knowledge and experience with similar projects, contracts, clients and consulting assignments * Team leader: Relevant experience, qualifications, and position with firm. * Team members - Relevant experience, skills & competencies. * Organization of the team and roles & responsibilities; (30) 10   10 5 5 Sub-total 60 PRESENTATION * Presentation on proposed approach and timeline 10     TOTAL MARKS   70   Evaluation Process For this RFP, the Technical Proposal has a total score of 70 points. Based on the initial desk review, those bidders who attain the minimum score of 42 points out of 60 points will be invited to make a presentation of their technical proposals where clarifications will be sought. Shortlisted bidders will be requested to present the proposed methodology, approach, data analysis tools and report outline including professionalism and clarity of materials presented. Bidders must score a minimum of 49 points to be technically compliant in order, for the Financial Proposals to be opened. Financial proposal has a total score of 30 points. Only the financial proposals of those bidders who attain the minimum qualifying score will be opened for next stage of evaluation. The final selection of the bidder will be based on a quality and cost basis with weightage of 70% of the technical proposal and 30% of the financial proposal.